A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
